The ex-ante evaluation of the Vietnam – UAE CEPA impact on Vietnam’s exports of garments to the UAE


Authors

  • Nguyen Ngoc Diep Thuongmai University
DOI: https://doi.org/10.57110/vnujeb.v3i4.209

Keywords:

Exports of garments, SMART model, UAE, Vietnam, Vietnam – UAE CEPA

Abstract

Using the SMART model, this paper aims at examining the ex-ante impact of the Vietnam – United Arab Emirates Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (Vietnam – UAE CEPA), on Vietnam’s garment exports, which is still under negotiation. Two scenarios are developed in accordance with the UAE’s trade liberalization whose focus is on Asian countries including Vietnam. A positive effect of the assumed Vietnam – UAE CEPA on Vietnam’s exports are found in two scenarios. However, the UAE’s deeper engagement with other countries would cause a remarkable decrease in the export turnover of Vietnam’s commodities, leading to some short-term and long-term recommendations of the author to promote Vietnam’s export of garments to the UAE.

 

References

Fatma, S. (1998). Merchants’ role in a changing society: The case of Dubai, 1900-90. Middle Eastern Studies, 34(1), 87-102. https://doi.org/10.1080/00263209808701211

Australian Government Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. (2000). Accessing Middle East growth: Business opportunities in the Arabian Peninsula and Iran. https://www.dfat.gov.au/sites/default/files/megrowth.pdf

DinarStandard. (2022). State of the global islamic economy report – Unlocking opportunity. https://www.dinarstandard.com/post/state-of-the-global-islamic-economy-report-2022

Doan, D. M., & Nguyen, D. H. (2021). The potential impacts of the EVFTA on Vietnam’s exports of agricultural products: An application of SMART model. Journal of International Economics and Management, 21(2), 47-65. https://doi.org/10.38203/jiem.021.2.0028

Hoi, H. V., & Minh, N. T. (2022). Assessing the impact of EVFTA on Vietnam’s textile and garment exports to the UK. International Journal of Professional Business Review, 7(2), 01-24. https://doi.org/10.26668/businessreview/2022.v7i2.426

Thomas, H., David, H., Maros, I., Roman, K. (2007). How confident can we be in CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements? Economic Modelling, 24(4), 611-635. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2006.12.002

International Labour Organization (ILO). (2021). Statistics on labor productivity. https://ilostat.ilo.org/topics/labour-productivity/

ITC Trade map (2021). Trade Map: International trade statistics. https://www.trademap.org/

Mordor Intelligence. (2022). GCC textile market size & share analysis – Growth trends & forecasts (2023-2028). https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/gcc-textile-industry---growth-trends-and-forecast-2019---2024

Hoang, N. T., & Ngan, T. T. (2020). Impacts of EVFTA on the exportation of Vietnamese agricultural products to the EU market. Journal of International Economics and Management, 21(1), 1-23. https://doi.org/10.38203/jiem.021.1.0020

Plummer, M. G., Cheong, D., & Hamanaka, S. (2010). Methodology for impact assessment of free trade agreements. Asian Development Bank. https://aric.adb.org/pdf/FTA_Impact_Assessment.pdf

Statista. (2020). Production volume of cotton in Vietnam from 2010 to 2020. https://www.statista.com/statistics/671486/production-of-cotton-in-vietnam/

BP. (2021). Statistical review of world energy 2021 (70th ed.). https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2021-oil.pdf

Trong, T. D., Dung, L. T., & Linh, N. P. (2021). Impact of EVFTA on trade flows of fruits between Vietnam and the EU. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(5), 607-616. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2021.vol8.no5.0607

Thu, V. T., Hoa, P. T., & Hanh, N. T. (2018). Effects of EVFTA on Vietnam’s apparel exports: An application of WITS-SMART simulation model. Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, 25(2), 4-28. https://doi.org/10.24311/jabes/2018.25.S02.1

Huong, V. T., & Cat, P. L. (2016). A dynamic approach to assess international competitiveness of Vietnam’s garment and textile industry. SpringerPlus, 5, 203. https://doi.org.10.1186/s40064-016-1912-3

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Downloads

Published

25-08-2023

Abstract View

464

PDF Downloaded

3

How to Cite

Nguyen Ngoc Diep. (2023). The ex-ante evaluation of the Vietnam – UAE CEPA impact on Vietnam’s exports of garments to the UAE. VNU University of Economics and Business, 3(4), 44. https://doi.org/10.57110/vnujeb.v3i4.209

Issue

Section

Original Articles